• Die Corona-Krise verursachte einen jähen Einbruch oder „Sudden Stop“ internationaler Kapitalflüsse in Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern. Auf frühere solcher „Sudden Stop“ Episoden folgten meist schwerwiegende Rezessionen, Finanzkrisen, sowie Staatsbankrotte.
• Das Ausmaß der Kapitalflucht ist heute jedoch wesentlich dramatischer als in früheren Krisen. Innerhalb von nur drei Monaten beliefen sich die kumulierten Kapitalabflüsse auf 100 Milliarden US-Dollar. Das ist ein historisch einzigartiger Abfluss von Kapital aus der Peripherie.
• Viele Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer stehen daher aller Voraussicht nach vor großen wirtschaftlichen und finanziellen Turbulenzen, mit weitreichenden Konsequenzen für die Weltwirtschaft und Europa. Denn Schwellenländer machen mittlerweile mehr als 50 Prozent der globalen Wirtschaftskraft aus und haben sich zu wichtigen Handelspartnern für Europa und Deutschland entwickelt.
• Schuldenerlässe und finanzielle Rettungspakete, insbesondere vom IWF, sind als Antwort auf die aktuelle Krise gerechtfertigt. Erste Initiativen der G20, wie das geplante Moratorium auf Staatsschulden, gehen in die richtige Richtung.

Using generalised variance decompositions from vector autoregressions, we analyse cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial market volatility between the US and Japan. Our model includes indices of monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty for each country, as well as three measures of option-implied stock market and exchange rate volatility, respectively. We find that the financial market volatility indices are usually substantial net spillover transmitters towards the total group of EPU measures. However, the Japanese equity and especially the FX volatility index are typically more affected by EPU spillovers than the US VXO. Our results also reveal that, compared to within-country spillovers, cross-country spillovers of EPU are relatively small and less volatile. Finally, we show that the direction of net EPU spillovers between the US and Japan is both time- and category-dependent with different EPU categories acting as strong sources of uncertainty spillovers throughout the sample period.

This note argues that basically all strands of available empirical and quantitative evidence on the economic effects of Brexit arrive at the conclusion that the economic burden for Britain will be substantial. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect that these costs are currently even underestimated as dynamic effects of Brexit are insufficiently captured by existing methods. Furthermore, all scenarios assume an orderly Brexit which looks increasingly unlikely. The best way forward is an exit from Brexit and to call for a second referendum on the concrete two policy alternatives which are now on the table.

Brexit, the exit of Britain from the EU, is scheduled to happen on March 29, 2019. At present, the Brexit train seems almost unstoppable. While most earlier economic and political discussions centered around the concrete design of Brexit and the impact of different arrangements of economic integration in the post-Brexit period (“soft” versus “hard” Brexit), the most pressing question now is whether an orderly Brexit can still be accomplished.

In March 2014 Crimea unilaterally declared its independence from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. The separation of a part of a state's territory and economy is an interesting matter to examine. The economy of Ukraine has not only shrunk, but also changed its structure as Crimea had a quite distinct production pattern compared to the rest of Ukraine. Moreover, policy measures initialized before the separation may have different effects once applied only to a part of the former economy. This paper proposes a strategy to model the separation of part of an economy and its inclusion into another country and applies this strategy to the case of Crimea, Ukraine, and Russia. Having constructed a model for the new geographical and economic situation, we reinvestigate the possible effects of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and compare the results for the situation with Crimea as part of Ukraine. We find that the annexation of Crimea leads to severe economic losses for Ukraine which are partly overproportional compared to Crimea's economic size. These negative effects can be compensated by implementing the DCFTA with the EU as we also show in our model results.

This paper analyses the interdependence of policy uncertainty from 1985 to 2017 across six different categories of US economic policy: Monetary, fiscal, healthcare, national security, regulatory, and trade policy. To this end, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) connectedness index methodology to the newspaper-based uncertainty indices developed by Baker et al. (2016). We find that, in total, the category-specific uncertainties are indeed closely interrelated. However, some policy categories are strong net transmitters of uncertainty spillovers (e.g. fiscal policy), while others show only a low degree of average connectedness and are predominantly net receivers (e.g. trade policy). A modified rolling-window approach further reveals that the intensity and direction of spillovers change significantly over time. The total connectedness index not only shows strong bursts related to certain events, but also exhibits a positive long-run trend. The latter is particularly driven by an increasing average connectedness of both healthcare and regulatory policy uncertainty. Finally, we highlight the different characteristics of the uncertainty network across presidential administrations, as well as before and after the most recent election.

Mit Hilfe von generalisierten Varianzdekompositionen aus Vektorautoregressionen untersuchen wir länder- und kategorieübergreifende Unsicherheits-Spillover-Effekte zwischen den USA und Japan. Dabei betrachten wir sowohl wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit (WPU) als auch Finanzmarktvolatilität. Unser Modell beinhaltet für jedes Land drei Maße geld-, fiskal- und handelspolitischer Unsicherheit sowie insgesamt drei Indizes für implizite Aktienmarkt- und Wechselkursvolatilität. Wir stellen zunächst fest, dass die Volatilitätsindizes in der Regel starke Netto-Sender von Spillover-Effekten gegenüber der Gruppe von WPU-Indikatoren sind. Gleichzeitig sind jedoch der japanische Aktien- und Devisenmarktvolatilitätsindex beide stärker von WPU-Spillovern betroffen als der US-amerikanische VXO. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass länderübergreifende WPU-Spillover im Vergleich zu inländischen Spillover-Effekten relativ klein und weniger volatil sind. Zuletzt zeigen wir, dass die Richtung der Netto-WPU-Spillover zwischen den USA und Japan sowohl zeit- als auch kategorieabhängig ist. Dabei fungieren im Laufe des Untersuchungszeitraums verschiedene WPU-Kategorien als starke Quellen von Unsicherheitsspillovern.

Jüngste Ereignisse wie die Finanz- und Staatsschuldenkrise in Europa gingen mit einem Anstieg der wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit (EPU) einher. Um die Effekte von EPU auf neun makroökonomische Variablen für elf Länder der Europäischen Währungsunion zu quantifizieren, verwenden wir ein TVP-FAVAR Modell mit hierarchischen Prioren. Unsere Studie zeigt erstens, dass EPU über verschiedene Kanäle, wie dem realen Options-, dem vorsorglichen Spar- und dem Finanzkanal, übertragen wird. Zweitens, basierend auf den Impuls-Antwort-Folgen (IAF) können wir zwischen den GIIPS-Ländern und den nördlichen Ländern unterscheiden, wobei erstgenannte stärker von EPU-Schocks beeinflusst werden. Drittens, während sich die IAF für acht Variablen lediglich in der Stärke und nicht im Vorzeichen unterscheiden, gibt es in jenen der langfristigen Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen Unterschiede im Vorzeichen. Viertens zeigt unsere Studie, dass Investoren stärker auf EPU-Schocks reagieren als Konsumenten. Fünftens, wir zeigen, dass EPU die gemeinsame europäische Geldpolitik beeinflusst. Sechstens liefert unsere Studie empirische Belege dafür, dass der Transmissionsmechanismus von EPU-Schocks über die Zeit konstant ist. Schlussendlich geht aus unserer Studie hervor, dass der Anstieg von EPU teilweise durch die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Lage der europäischen Volkswirtschaften erklärt werden kann, weshalb EPU als endogene Variable behandelt werden sollte.

Given the scarce resources for public investment in developing countries, policy analysis should include a detailed perspective on the effects of infrastructure. This article develops a modelling framework for analysing the effects of improved road infrastructure on the economy of African countries. The theoretical framework is tested empirically and used for simulations in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and the effects on production and welfare are analysed. The model also serves to investigate the effect of roads on the economic participation of rural households.

The establishment of an Association Agreement/Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (AA/DCFTA) with the European Union (EU) would be the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy. Despite widely expected additional welfare gains, the signing of the AA/DCFTA at the Third Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013 in Vilnius was suspended by the Ukrainian government due to geopolitical concerns and a severe economic and financial crisis in Ukraine coming along with high external debt and a substantial public budget deficit. This puts the fiscal consequences of Ukraine’s continued liberalization into focus, as transition and developing countries face higher fiscal costs associated with trade integration. Accordingly, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the part of the potential EU-Ukraine DCFTA which leads to a loss of tariff revenues, namely the tariff elimination. In particular, we apply a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the single small open economy of Ukraine and focus on the effects of Ukraine’s unilateral tariff elimination by simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss of tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios.

Numerous econometric studies fail to detect a significant and robust relationship between international aid and economic growth in the recipient countries. Dutch Disease effects might be responsible for this result. This paper examines the relation between aid and its effectiveness in a multi-sector multi-household Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-framework. Given that international transfers to African countries increasingly take the form of general financial support to the government, different spending strategies and their macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects are evaluated in a two-stage simulation making a distinction between immediate direct effects and possible long-run effects from increased productivity. The presence of sector-specific factors weakens Dutch Disease effects and shifts the burden of adjustment primarily to other exporting sectors. While the model simulates the effects of additional aid in Zambia it can be used as a blueprint for other African countries.

From the perspective of Sub-Saharan Africa, the history of developmental aid is mostly a recollection of drawbacks and failures, although few success stories can be told as well. Over the last thirty years, many countries have received abundant developmental assistance, yet they are still struggling to reach adequate levels of human development. Many researchers, journalists and politicians, both from Africa and the Western countries, call for a substantial reformulation and reform of the international development aid framework. Consequently, research on the effects of developmental aid is crucial in the process of designing an informed new development agenda. At the same time it is important to understand how additional investments could operate and which effects are probable or possible for each of the specific fields. Additional indirect effects, may they be positive or negative, should be taken into account.

This dissertation aims at providing insights into the aspects listed above by integrating development assistance and sector development programs into adequate economy-wide models for Sub-Saharan African states. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) methodology belongs to the standard toolkit of economic policy consulting. This thesis comprises three different CGE models complemented by an econometric study. The models elaborate on various aspects of aid-financed development programs. The here-presented models are an important contribution to the respective modeling literature and add detail to their existing counterparts, especially in regards to the modeling of government behavior and the endogenous households' skill choice for their child members. The third model is a recursive-dynamic model which integrates educational production as well as the choice between child labor supply and schooling.

The second chapter in this dissertation focuses on the direct spending effect resulting from development aid being paid to the government of an African state. It investigates whether so called Dutch Disease effects from aid are possible and probable, yet it goes beyond the Dutch Disease literature. The model and the analysis distinguish between different aid-spending strategies on the one hand and the possible second-round effect on productivity on the other. The paper presents an application of the model to Zambia and subsequently incorporates the notion of enclave sectors in the economy (which is often the case in countries with large natural resources). Of the following three chapters each concentrates on distinctive areas where development aid might be invested in a way that fosters productivity.

Chapter three shows how the effects of infrastructure improvements can be explicitly captured in a CGE model setup. In contrast to many other studies, the paper depicts infrastructure as a transport cost-reducing element which improves market access by providing a low cost alternative to transportation services. The paper emphasizes the positive effect of an improved road network for market access, as well as its effects on home consumption and small-scale farming.

Chapter four extends the econometric analysis of infrastructure in the third chapter and elaborates further on the econometric relationship between transport costs and the status of the road network. The paper combines input-output data, road network data, meteorological as well as geographical data in order to analyze the key factors determining transport costs across countries in a pooled estimation. The paper contributes to the transportation literature by developing and applying a new measure for transport costs. Noteworthy differences between developed and developing countries are identified, which leads to the conclusion that evidence on the success of road network projects in industrialized countries cannot be easily transferred to the developing countries.

The last paper explores yet another important area of development policy: educational policy. It embeds the labor force effects from increased enrollment under different circumstances within a very detailed recursive-dynamic CGE model. The main advancement, as compared to other CGE studies in this field, lies in the explicit modeling of the educational process itself. The model carefully considers the short term requirements in terms of skilled staff and physical schooling facilities, which require financing in order to increase enrollment, as well as the long term effects of the above on skilled labor provision. Moreover, the paper looks into the trade-off between current foregone earnings from child labor and future possible returns from higher education, doing so by including child labor into the model.

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa.We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging from the use of non-modified real time data instead of real-time data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both effects can influence the reaction to inflation and the output gap either way, we use a more clear-cut approach to disentangle the partial effects. Our estimation results indicate that using real time instead of ex post data leads to higher estimated inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the current period are used (since actual data become available with a lag), this empirical pattern is even strengthened in the sense of even increasing the inflation response but lowering the reaction to the output gap while the reverse is true if ¿true¿ forecasts of real time data for several periods are employed.

In this paper we investigate how Fed and ECB monetary policy changed within the financial crisis of 2007-2010. We argue that due to the very low interest rates classical monetary policy rules like e.g. the Taylor rule could lead to false conclusions. We propose a new way of conducting monetary policy when the zero lower bound becomes binding via shaping the inflation expectations. Our results indicate that using this modified Taylor rule shows similar tendencies in the reaction coefficients as the standard Taylor rule at least if no interest smoothing term is included.

We introduce a new approach to estimate asymmetric Taylor reaction functions where asymmetries depend crucially on the state of the economy which is in the Taylor rule framework the combination of inflation and output deviations. Thus we categorize the sample into four subsamples which correspond to all possible combinations concerning inflation and output deviations. Moreover we introduce a quadratic  term of inflation and the output gap in the estimation equation for each state in order to capture possible nonlinearities within each state. The approach is tested using data for the ECB because the ECB has communicated an explicit inflation target.

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die dynamischen Effekte antizipierter und nicht-antizipierter Ölpreiserhöhungen in einer kleinen Währungsunion mit zwei Mitgliedsländern, die gleichzeitig durch asymmetrische Lohnanpassungsgleichungen und asymmetrische Zinsreagibilitäten der Güternachfrage gekennzeichnet sind. In dieser strukturell asymmetrischen Währungsunion führen gemeinsame externe Ölpreisschocks zu vorübergehenden konjunkturellen Divergenzen innerhalb der Währungsunion. Im Fall antizipierter Ölpreiserhöhungen kommt es im Verlauf des Anpassungsprozesses zu einer Umkehrung des Konjunkturgefälles innerhalb der Währungsunion. Die Stabilisierung der Outputentwicklungen innerhalb der Währungsunion ist über den gesamten Zeitraum grundsätzlich möglich, erfordert jedoch eine Ausgestaltung der Geldpolitik, die in qualitativer Hinsicht zeitkonsistent, aber in quantitativer Sicht zeitinkonsistent ist. Sie erfordert nämlich, dass die Zentralbank für den Zeitpunkt der antizipierten Ölpreiserhöhung eine Verringerung der Wachstumsrate der Geldmenge glaubwürdig ankündigt, letztendlich zum späteren Zeitpunkt der Ölpreiserhöhung eine etwas schwächere geldpolitische Reaktion implementiert.

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before
and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the
equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within
these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate
spreads and asset price inflation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because
these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also
likely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis.
Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as
far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit
growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient
turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the
reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the
ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth,
consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find
evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.

JEL code: E43, E52, E58

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging from the use of non-modified real time data instead of real-time data based forecasted values and vice versa. Since both effects can influence the reaction to inflation and the output gap either way, we use a more clear-cut approach to disentangle the partial effects. Our estimation results indicate that using real time instead of ex post data leads to higher estimated inflation coefficients while the opposite is true for the output gap coefficients. If real time data forecasts for the current period are used (since actual data become available with a lag), this empirical pattern is even strengthened in the sense of even increasing the inflation response but lowering the reaction to the output gap while the reverse is true if "true" forecasts of real time data for several periods are employed.

JEL Classification:
E43, E58

Numerous econometric studies fail to detect a signicant and robust relationship
between international aid and economic growth in the recipient countries.
Dutch Disease effects might be responsible for this result.This paper examines
the relation between aid and its effectiveness in a multi-sector multihousehold
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-framework. Given that
international transfers to African countries increasingly take the form of general
financial support to the government, different spending strategies and
their macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects are evaluated in a
two-stage simulation making a distinction between immediate direct effects
and possible long-run effects from increased productivity. While the model
simulates the effects of additional aid in Zambia it can be used as a blueprint
for other African countries.

This paper uses a semi-structural dynamic modelling approach to investigate asymmetric monetary transmission in Europe. A system of equations containing reaction functions for monetary policy, output and inflation equations is simultaneously estimated for France, Germany, and Italy. Extensive cross equation tests show that relatively large differences in simulated impulse responses are still consistent with the notion that the transmission mechanism is homogeneous across the three major EMU countries. However, monetary policy impulses show a relatively stronger effect on the output gap in Italy and Germany. Out-of-sample tests do not find a structural break in the transmission mechanisms prior to EMU.

This paper investigates in a consistent semi-structural empirical framework three current issues of monetary policy in the euro area. First, regarding policy transmission we offer a three-stage procedure to combine the efficient estimation of economic structure prior to EMU with current ECB monetary policy. Second, we test whether the regime change leads – before or after – EMU to structural instability. Third, we investigate the stance of monetary policy in Europe. We compare a "counterfactual" ECB reaction function based on average interest rates prior to EMU with actual ECB policy. Furthermore, we compare actual ECB policy with interest rate projections using Bundesbank reaction functions and euroland data.

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric interest rate transmission. This asymmetry gives rise to intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. The direction and the number of these reversals depend on whether policies are unanticipated or anticipated. We also study the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union. Monetary policy may completely stabilize European output after unanticipated fiscal policy shocks. With anticipated fiscal policy shocks, complete stabilization throughout the overall adjustment process requires monetary policy to be time-inconsistent.

This paper reviews the literature on asymmetric monetary transmission within the European Monetary Union (EMU). At first, a stylized model is presented in order to highlight the importance of asymmetric monetary transmission for the decision-making of the European Central Bank (ECB). The transmission mechanism is then decomposed into several subsequent stages. Various macroeconomic indicators for the EU countries related to financial, goods and labor markets are then used to assess the empirical relevance of asymmetries across the EU countries. Then, models of a monetary union are used to assess to which extent cross-country differences in individual channels of transmission translate into differences in the overall strength of monetary transmission in Europe. Finally, the paper assesses the extent to which the transmission patterns in Europe convergence as a result of the establishment of EMU. The paper finds the empirical evidence on cross-country differences in the policy impact to be inconclusive and provides suggestions for further theoretical and empirical research.

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated symmetric demand and supply side policies within the framework of a macroeconomic model of a small monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric wage adjustment equations of Phillips‘ curve type. It is shown that an anticipated simultaneous increase in government expenditure in both member countries leads to a short-run fall in output and to temporary divergences in output developments. From the perspective of the country with the lower wage flexibility the output differential is positive in the short-run. In the course of the subsequent adjustment process the relative cyclical position is reversed. The difference between the two member country outputs changes its sign due to changes in the internal and external terms of trade. Similar results hold with a simultaneous reduction of labor extra-costs in both countries. Compared with a symmetric increase in government expenditure the development of the output differential is essentially opposite in sign.

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and foreign interest rate shocks in a monetary union, which is small relative to the rest of the world and simultaneously characterized by supply-side and demand-side asymmetries. We investigate both, the implications at the aggregate European level as well as in the individual member countries. The analysis distinguishes between anticipated and unanticipated shocks. We find that monetary policy, which is expansionary at the aggregate European level, may have a contractionary impact in individual member countries. Whereas monetary and fiscal policy cause temporary cyclical divergences within the monetary union, shocks to the world interest rate lead to lasting cyclical divergences within the monetary union.

The European Central Bank uses a monetary strategy which represents a combination of monetary targeting and direct inflation targeting In this context, the stability of the long-run European money demand function is widely seen as a precondition for a strategy of monetary targeting. This paper investigates the aggregate demand for money in Europe including those countries representing the initial group in the European Monetary Union. First, we identify stable (in the sense of cointegrated) European money demand functions for M1 as well as for M3. Second, we investigate parameter constancy over time and do not find suggestive evidence of structural instability Overall, the results provide empirical support for the European Central Bank to target a European monetary aggregate.

The European Central Bank will soon have to decide on her monetary strategy. This paper discusses properties of money demand functions and implications for monetary policy in a monetary targeting regime. Special attention is paid to different concepts of stability of money demand, to the length and variability of adjustment lags, and to the controllability of the money stock. At the European level, stable money demand functions are identified for M1 and M3. However, M3 appears to be less controllable than M1. Long and variable adjustment lags in the demand for M3 weaken the case for broad money as a monetary target.

Three potential problems in the transition to European Monetary Union are analyzed in a three country model of a currency union. The problems discussed are the choice of a misaligned conversion rate at the time of the move to the currency union, the uncertainty with respect to the future stance of monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the risk of an asymmetric real wage push within the monetary union. The macroeconomic implications of these disturbances are analyzed and alternative strategies for monetary and fiscal policy are evaluated.

The Bundesbank failed to achieve her monetary targets in numerous years. Against this background the present paper discusses the implications of these deviations for the exchange rate and the price level. The model by Dornbusch (1976) is augmented by an equation which captures the correction of the deviations in subsequent periods. In the case of single period deviations with immediately beginning correction the volatility of the exchange rate and the price level will be the smaller, the more decisively the money stock is driven back to the equilibrium level. In contrast, in the case of the multi-period deviations the volatility of the exchange rate will be the higher the faster the correction of the money stock.

The paper analyzes the implications of fiscal consolidation efforts for the real external exchange rate. In the model following Dornbusch (1976) augmented by an equation reflecting the evolution of government spending, it is shown that the fluctuations of the real external exchange rate will be the smaller, the more decisively policy makers reduce public deficits. On the other hand, all other macroeconomic variables exhibit more short-term variability. In the decision about the speed of fiscal consolidation, policy makers face a short-term tradeoff between real exchange rate and other macroeconomic stability.

The paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of monetary union in Germany (GMU) and tries to draw conclusions for European Monetary Union (EMU). For Germany, currency conversion led to a substantial appreciation in East Germany and contributed there to a decline in production and to heavy unemployment, necessitating high fiscal transfers. Interest rates rose, the DM-exchange rate appreciated and the capital account turned into a deficit position. On the other hand, it seems that money supply, money demand, and inflation have only been influenced in the short run. It can be shown that many of the problems experienced in Germany result from the joint and rapid introduction of the monetary, economic and social unification with a former socialist country. Therefore, if EMU is introduced as a separate affair costs and benefits will be relatively small, especially once wages are allowed to be flexible. The basic lesson from GMU for EMU is not to overloook the problems associated with a social union in Europe and not to underestimate the pressure towards wage equalisation in a monetary union.

Gegenstand der Untersuchung ist die theoretische und empirische Analyse der Bedeutung der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik für die Wechselkursentwicklung. Als Referenzsystem wird dabei das Modell von Dornbusch (1976) zugrundegelegt. Mittels einer theoretischen Sensitivitätsanalyse wird zunächst für geldpolitische Impulse geprüft, inwieweit die Hypothese überschießender Wechselkursreaktionen (Overshooting) auch in verallgemeinerten Modellstrukturen Gültigkeit besitzt. Im nächsten Schritt wird die Frage gestellt, unter welchen Umständen auch durch fiskalpolitische Impulse überschießende Wechselkursreaktionen ausgelöst werden. In der empirischen Analyse wird sowohl der kurz- als auch der langfristige Einfluß der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf die Entwicklung des DM/Dollar-Wechselkurses geschätzt.

This paper demonstrates on the basis of a modified (Dornbusch 1976) model with real income levels determined by short-term demand and with a nominal monetary demand level dependent upon the consumer price index that substantial exchange rate fluctuations may be caused by fiscal impulses in both the long and the short terms. Exchange-rate-overshooting in the short term occurs whenever the interest rate response is normal, i. e. when the level of domestic interest rises after a period of expansionary fiscal policy. It is shown that the longterm exchange rate effects of an expansionary fiscal policy course depend strongly on the respective combination of structural parameters. These effects have hitherto been neglected in the analyses made, which focused exclusively on the short-term fluctuations around an equilibrium value not yet examined in detail. It is also demonstrated that there may be a tradeoff between the short-term and the long-term exchange-rate varialility under certain circumstances.