Lebenslauf:

Akademische Grade:

• Bachelor of Science (Universität Duisburg-Essen, 2010)
• Master of Science (University of Birmingham, UK, 2012)
• Promotion in Volkswirtschaftslehre (Universität Duisburg-Essen, 2019)

Beruflicher Werdegang:

• 01.10.2012 - 01.07.2019: Universität Duisburg-Essen, Promotion in Volkswirtschaftslehre (Dr. rer. pol.)
• 15.10.2012 - 30.09.2018: Universität Duisburg-Essen, Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter bei Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen
• 1.9.2011 - 30.12.2012: University of Birmingham, UK, Masterstudium in Money, Banking and Finance
• 1.10.2010 - 30.9.2011: Universität Duisburg-Essen, Masterstudium der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
• 1.2.2010 - 30.7.2011: Universität Duisburg-Essen, Studentische Hilfskraft bei Prof. Dr. Walter Assenmacher
• 1.10.2007 - 30.9.2010: Universität Duisburg-Essen, Bachelorstudium der Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Forschungsgebiete:

• Macroeconomic Uncertainty
• Multivariate Time Series Analysis
• Volatility Models (GARCH)
• Equity & Commodity Markets

Publikationen:

• Thiem, C.: Empirical Essays on the Influence of Uncertainty in the World Economy (1). 2019. BIB DownloadDetails
• Thiem, C.: Cross-category Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility. In: Open Economies Review (2019), S. 1-26. doi:10.1007/s11079-019-09559-1VolltextBIB DownloadKurzfassungDetails

  Using generalised variance decompositions from vector autoregressions, we analyse cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial market volatility between the US and Japan. Our model includes indices of monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty for each country, as well as three measures of option-implied stock market and exchange rate volatility, respectively. We find that the financial market volatility indices are usually substantial net spillover transmitters towards the total group of EPU measures. However, the Japanese equity and especially the FX volatility index are typically more affected by EPU spillovers than the US VXO. Our results also reveal that, compared to within-country spillovers, cross-country spillovers of EPU are relatively small and less volatile. Finally, we show that the direction of net EPU spillovers between the US and Japan is both time- and category-dependent with different EPU categories acting as strong sources of uncertainty spillovers throughout the sample period.

• Clausen, V.; Schlösser, A.; Thiem, C.: Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Euro Area: Cross-Country Spillovers and Macroeconomic Impact. In: Journal of Economics and Statistics (2019) Nr. 239/5, S. 957-981. VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Thiem, C.: Cross-category Spillovers of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Ruhr Economic Papers, 2018. VolltextBIB DownloadKurzfassungDetails

  This paper analyses the interdependence of policy uncertainty from 1985 to 2017 across six different categories of US economic policy: Monetary, fiscal, healthcare, national security, regulatory, and trade policy. To this end, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) connectedness index methodology to the newspaper-based uncertainty indices developed by Baker et al. (2016). We find that, in total, the category-specific uncertainties are indeed closely interrelated. However, some policy categories are strong net transmitters of uncertainty spillovers (e.g. fiscal policy), while others show only a low degree of average connectedness and are predominantly net receivers (e.g. trade policy). A modified rolling-window approach further reveals that the intensity and direction of spillovers change significantly over time. The total connectedness index not only shows strong bursts related to certain events, but also exhibits a positive long-run trend. The latter is particularly driven by an increasing average connectedness of both healthcare and regulatory policy uncertainty. Finally, we highlight the different characteristics of the uncertainty network across presidential administrations, as well as before and after the most recent election.

• Thiem, C.: Cross-category Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility, Ruhr Economic Papers, 2018. (ISBN 978-3-86788-910-0) doi:10.4419/86788910 ) VolltextBIB DownloadKurzfassungDetails

  Mit Hilfe von generalisierten Varianzdekompositionen aus Vektorautoregressionen untersuchen wir länder- und kategorieübergreifende Unsicherheits-Spillover-Effekte zwischen den USA und Japan. Dabei betrachten wir sowohl wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit (WPU) als auch Finanzmarktvolatilität. Unser Modell beinhaltet für jedes Land drei Maße geld-, fiskal- und handelspolitischer Unsicherheit sowie insgesamt drei Indizes für implizite Aktienmarkt- und Wechselkursvolatilität. Wir stellen zunächst fest, dass die Volatilitätsindizes in der Regel starke Netto-Sender von Spillover-Effekten gegenüber der Gruppe von WPU-Indikatoren sind. Gleichzeitig sind jedoch der japanische Aktien- und Devisenmarktvolatilitätsindex beide stärker von WPU-Spillovern betroffen als der US-amerikanische VXO. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass länderübergreifende WPU-Spillover im Vergleich zu inländischen Spillover-Effekten relativ klein und weniger volatil sind. Zuletzt zeigen wir, dass die Richtung der Netto-WPU-Spillover zwischen den USA und Japan sowohl zeit- als auch kategorieabhängig ist. Dabei fungieren im Laufe des Untersuchungszeitraums verschiedene WPU-Kategorien als starke Quellen von Unsicherheitsspillovern.

• Thiem, C.: Oil Price Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Accounting for the Influences of Global Supply and Demand Within a VAR GARCH-In-Mean Framework. In: Applied Economics (2018), S. 1-17. doi:10.1080/00036846.2018.1436142BIB DownloadDetails

Herausgeberschaften:

Tagungen:

• 20th INFER Annual Conference, Universität Göttingen, September 2018.
• Jahrestagung 2018 des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Universität Freiburg, September 2018.
• 17th Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society, London, Juni 2018.
• EIIW Workshop "The Influence of Brexit on the EU28", Universität Wuppertal, März 2018. 
• 11th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Februar 2018.
• 16th Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society, Ljubljana, Slowenien, Juni 2017.
• V Meeting on International Economics, Institute of International Economics, Villarreal, Spanien, Juli 2016.
• Energy and Commodity Finance Conference, ESSEC Business School, Cergy-Pontoise, Frankreich, Juni 2016.
• 15th Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society, Amsterdam, Niederlande, Juni 2016.
• 9th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum, Februar 2016.